Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
Before I get into my props, there were two Thanksgiving specials that stood out to me on DraftKings that I want to cover.
Josh Allen is +240 to record the most passing yards on Thanksgiving and Gabe Davis is +1300 to lead the list in receiving yards.
I project Davis closer to +900 to be at the top of the receiving charts on Turkey Day. He has a wider hit range than most players, so you could argue he should be lower.
Davis doesn’t need the volume of other wide receivers to win this bet given his big-play ability. There’s a scenario where he leads the list with something like 125 receiving yards going into the last game of the night. If so, you can hedge your bet by betting on Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards. If Jefferson drops below his 88.5 total, it’s unlikely anyone else will go over 125. If he goes between 89 and 124 receiving yards, you’ll win both bets.
The bet on Allen goes hand in hand with Davis. I’d say a fair price on Allen is closer to +200.
With that said, here are my favorite props for all three Thanksgiving games.
Singletary is coming off a career high 18 rushing attempts last week against the Browns. It was only the third time he has cleared that total in 10 games.
Against Cleveland, Singletary benefited from Josh Allen who recorded season-lows in passing (197) and rushing (seven) yards. I think we’ll see him bounce back with enough game in the air and on the ground to absorb Singletary’s workload.
Additionally, we saw second-round rookie James Cook record his best game of the season, with 11 carries for 86 rushing yards. Singletary dominates the pass and 2-minute work, but the Bills could continue to use Cook on first downs to keep the veteran fresh.
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Another thing that works against Singletary in this market is that he doesn’t get many third or fourth and short tries. The Bills have a foolproof quarterback sneak where they line up Gabe Davis behind Allen, pushing the QB forward.
There are some sneaky guardrails on this prop as well. If the Lions are able to keep him close, that will force the Bills into a heavy play script.
If the Bills get a huge lead, they tend to wrap up Singletary and let Cook dominate the work. Buffalo may also want to finally give Nyheim Hines some reps on offense. Any rushed attempts he gets will only help this prop.
I’m projecting Singletary for closer to 12.5 run attempts and would bet as low as -140.
I can’t think of a better way to spend Thanksgiving than sweating out a Lawrence Cager prop during dinner hour (on the East Coast).
I think this prop offers sneaky value because the Giants will likely be forced into a heavy play script as 10-point underdogs.
Daniel Jones just lost his main target, Wan’Dale Robinson, for the rest of the season. That makes Darius Slayton the new go-to wide receiver, though it’s unknown who will emerge as the #2 option.
Cager would continue to be the Giants’ pass-catching tight end until the return of rookie Daniel Bellinger. Cager ran a path on 70% of Jones’ dropbacks last week and I expect to see similar usage with Robinson out.
The Cowboys have generated the most pressure in the NFL this season. Jones has targeted his tight end 14% of the time in a clean pocket, but this rises to 19% when he is under pressure.
Cager is a former wide receiver turned tight end. He is 6 foot 5 and 220 pounds. He’s not there to block. Also, for what it’s worth, he had the second-most receiving yards among tight ends in the preseason.
I’m projecting Cager closer to 19.5 receiving yards here and I like the upswing of his over.
Cousins has struggled when facing pressure this season. His yards per attempt drop from 7.1 with a clean pocket to 5.4 when he’s under pressure. With that, it was no surprise that Cousins really struggled against the Cowboys as Dallas leads the league in speed.
Cousins faces another tough test against a Patriots defense that ranks second in pressure rate. To make matters worse, left tackle Christian Darrisaw has already been ruled out.
As a result, I expect Minnesota to have a more conservative and heavy game plan against New England.
The Patriots offense may also struggle to score points, which helps lessen the chances of Cousins getting into a play script that sees the Vikings pass heavy and play from behind.
I’m projecting him closer to 238.5 passing yards.